While you’re at it, wish for a pony.

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Another radio-inspired post… I listened to Talk of the Nation this afternoon – the topic: A Peacekeeping Force in Lebanon: Can It Work? I’ve been scratching my head about this idea since I first heard it – after listening to Col. Gary Anderson (U.S.M.C. Ret.), I don’t feel so alone. Some key turns of speech employed by Col. Anderson in response to some of the obvious considerations: “thats the $64,00 question”, “not sanguine about that”, etc. I got the impression he was doing his best to inform folks, though not in so many words, that this whole concept had a snowball’s chance in hell. Here’s a short list of what I see as obstacles to deployment of ‘aggressive peacekeepers’ (we’ve seen how well standard issue peacekeepers do in the area):

  • Hezbollah. If they are not on board with the peacekeeping mission, it will be a nightmare. Hezbollah have already surprised the IDF with their fighting ability – I’m not sure why anyone thinks a different force (with a longer logistic ‘tail’) will be orders of magnitude more effective. Why would Hezbollah want to be disarmed now? They are winning – at least on the public relations and recruiting front (one blogger suggested that it would not be long before there was a Maronite Christian wing of Hezbollah, given Israel’s strategy of holding all of Lebanon hostage).
  • Who? NATO? *crickets chirping* One of the Arab states? Israel will be comfortable with that I’m sure. A possibility that seems to be getting some play is Turkey (a NATO member, I know) , but I wonder if they may want to keep their troops close at hand for ‘pacification’ of Iraqi Kurdistan when the next phase of the Iraqi civil war gets under way.
  • A corollary to the ‘who?’ question – assuming we can find a couple battalions with the requisite capabilities and without local baggage (not likely, but play along for a minute) – how willing will the supplying country be to take casualties? For how long?
  • The logistic ‘tail’ – how would one supply these peacekeepers? Supply routes are vulnerable in a guerrilla war situation and Hezbollah are masters of what’s now known as IEDs.

It sure doesn’t seem like a bet I’d be willing to make…

The title of the post comes from here. The short form: “It’s like when you can’t decide whether to daydream about being a famous Hollywood star or having amazing magical powers. Why not — be a famous Hollywood star with amazing magical powers! Along these lines, John has developed an infallible way to improve any public policy wishes. You just wish for the thing, plus, wish that everyone would have their own pony!”

update 7/27 AM: The ‘who’ is getting a little clearer – some European countries (France, Italy) are indicating a willingness to participate in peacekeeping. The ‘how/what’ remains unclear – will this force attempt to disarm Hezbollah? enforce an already agreed-upon cease-fire? will they shoot in self-defense only or will this be the aggressive force that has been suggested? For really high-quality Middle East blogging, read Juan Cole’s Informed Comment.