One last pre-primary political post

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Something to keep an eye on – there are a lot of independents in NH. We can vote in either primary; you walk in, ask for an R or D ballot, vote and then, if you’d like to revert to undeclared status, swing by a table on your way out to sign a piece of paper renouncing your presumed (assumed?) party affiliation.

John McCain needs independents. He did very well eight years ago, but that’s ancient history. If Barack Obama (and to a lesser degree, John Edwards) can rally independents to his banner, McCain may suffer. There are not a lot of 27-percenter independents – McCain’s willingness to stay in Iraq for a hundred years may not be a selling point – and Obama is enjoying a significant ‘holy sh1t, maybe this guy can do it’ post -IA bounce. On the other hand, McCain is not as hated by the local R establishment as he is, apparently, at a national level, and there is local experience with the Mittster (we saw him before he became a conservative – a conversion that coincided, unsurprisingly, with his decision to run for President).

Update – I didn’t see this till after I posted (I swear!):

If the independents-go-Democratic scenario plays out again in New Hampshire, the Democratic primary winner will almost certainly be Obama. And the winner of a Republican primary cleansed of independents and dominated by the conservative base would not necessarily be John McCain.

end of update

It’s going to be interesting – as long as the little man looking for a balcony (9/11!) continues to get whupped, I’ll be happy. As a thank you to readers who have put up with my ranting – a new fave webcomic: the Perry Bible Fellowship.

4 thoughts on “One last pre-primary political post”

  2. I plan on doing as Mayor Daley (the orig) suggested – “Vote early and often!” ;-0

  4. Here ’tis – short ‘n sweet –

    • looks like indys broke pretty evenly – certainly no Obama rush – thus McCain’s win
    • best quote on the R side – Romney aide: “McCain won because he was more authentic.” Ya think?
    • Bradley/Wilder effect? no – notice that Obama hit his numbers
    • Tweety effect? wouldn’t surprise me – I’m not a fan of H’s, but the way she was treated by the tradmed was nauseating
    • Giuliani is lying when he says he didn’t try very hard in NH. Not disingenuous, not spinning – lying.

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