Category Archives: politics

Saturday AM cleanup

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Some loose ends and tid-bits…

Boston vs. the Mooninites. I watched Boston news last night. The Mooninite story was not mentioned. I may have missed it, but it for sure was not one of the leads and was not mentioned in the ‘and next we’ll tell you about’ teasers. I’m shocked! shocked! (internet sarcasm alert) that having been a major player in the effort to make Boston an international laughing-stock, Beantown media is now pretending nothing ever happened. Later – here’s how to use LEDs!

Iran. Check out today’s Astronomy Picture of the Day – the Alborz Mountains by moonlight. Another place I’d love to visit, but it’s probably not a realistic goal. I try to keep current events/politics off this blog with the exception of security/privacy topics, but I can’t hold back on this one. The signs have been there for a while (see Sy Hersh’s reportage) – it’s looking likely that we (the US) are getting ready for a ‘flight forward’ involving Iran.

What we are witnessing (through rips in the curtain of official secrecy) may be an example of what the Germans call the flucht nach vorne – the “flight forward.” This refers to a situation in which an individual or institution seeks a way out of a crisis by becoming ever more daring and aggressive (or, as the White House propaganda department might put it: “bold”) A familar analogy is the gambler in Vegas, who tries to get out of a hole by doubling down on each successive bet.

Classic historical examples of the flucht nach vornes include Napoleon’s attempt to break the long stalemate with Britain by invading Russia,the decision of the Deep South slaveholding states to secede from the Union after Lincoln’s election, and Milosevic’s bid to create a “greater Serbia” after Yugoslavia fell apart.

We – US citizens – now have 6 years experience to guide us. If we fail to stop the Executive Branch from unleashing military disaster and geopolitical chaos, we have no one to blame but ourselves.

My brush with show-biz. Last fall I searched Flickr with Turfan as my search term – part of the nosing round I did getting ready for my Sphinx post. I came across Kate James’ photostream and enjoyed the heck out of it. A week or so ago, I wandered through again and noticed something about one of the pictures. Click here and read the comments for the story – short version: Penn Jillette mentioned the picture on his Feb. 1 radio show, Kate’s picture is getting lots of views and hopefully her book, Women of the Gobi, is benefiting. My copy is on it’s way from Amazon – I’ll keep you apprised. Also – for those of you who haven’t guessed, my Flickr ID is Don Coyote. It should really be spelled Don Kiyote – it’s a nod to the inhabitants of George Herriman’s version of Coconino County, but I worry sometimes about being too obscure…

Shorthairs.

Sire?

Dam?


Stay tuned.

Boston meets the Mooninites

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More evidence that fear does not make people smarter. For folks who are not up on this latest Keystone Kops incident, yesterday the Boston PD, local and state government, and the media went ape after someone reported a suspicious device (one of which is pictured above). Additional devices were found around town – they’d been there for, apparently, three weeks. Look like a bomb to you? Not to me – I’m well past the twenty-something demographic, but I recognized the moon guys instantly. If I wanted to blow something up I might use a NEMA enclosure with some conduit coming out of it to hide my device; a high tech Lite-Brite – not so much.
Now, of course, the powers-that-be are embarrassed and are going to get even – starting with the 2 poor schmucks who put the nefarious devices up. Go ahead, fine ’em for violating a ‘post no bills’ law – write ’em a ticket, but anything more? Come on.
This is, as far as I’m concerned, a kind of Type II error – evaluate the hypothesis as true (OMG, we must treat those things as IEDs) when it is in fact false – the kind of error that is far more likely when dealing with terrorism (because there are so few terrorists and so much random real life going on) than a Type I: ‘that’s nothing to be concerned about’, pause, !boom!. It would seem to me that public safety folks might want to examine why they committed such a large and long mistake and do so in a public way so everyone can learn from the fiasco, rather than concentrating on whuppin’ on a couple of Lite-Brite hangers. I know, I know – I’m living in a fantasy world, but seriously – we need to start holding folks, government and media both, to account. Panic, overreaction and constant fear are no way to run a city, state or nation. In the absence of any real ‘learn from our mistakes’ effort, I suggest mockery.
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A little later – Speaking of mockery… My favorite comment:
Seventy-five-hundred-thousand dollars for emergency response services, a cool three-quarters of a million bucks, according to May-yah Mumbles (aka The Honorable T. Menino), and over the course of their busy workday they still only found 10 or 11 of the original 38 “performance pieces”. Of course, most of the missing 20-odd were probably pried loose and are now adorning dorm walls, or eBay auctions. But, yeah, at least one local bloviator (Jon Keller) thinks that the poor schmuck responsible should be punished, “they should throw the thickest book possible at him”, not least because of the “vulgar hand signal” part. Because nothing says “Al Queda Pwned Amurka!!1!” like a frowny icon flipping us the Lite-Brite bird.Pants-Pisher Nation. We should be ashamed of ourselves.
Even later – I just did my little truth-table – if the null hypothesis (presumed state of nature) is ‘no bomb’, I believe I’m OK describing this as a type II error. If I’ve boogered up the type number (I or II), my point remains…

Word of the day

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Flopsweat – n. Theater. nervous perspiration caused by fear of failure before an audience. From “Random House Historical Dictionary of American Slang, Volume 1, A-G” by J.E. Lighter, Random House, New York, 1994. This earliest citation in this reference is: 1966 Susann “Valley of the Dolls” 292: The applause had been deafening on her entrance, but after ten minutes the air was heavy with “flop sweat.”

OK, let’s use it in a sentence (this line is what made flopsweat today’s word). Via the apostate Balloon Juice blog,

Unsurprisingly, practically everybody involved with the glorious clusterf*ck in Iraq has switched into desperate damage-control mode. Michael Leeden’s [sic] personal dodge (Supported the invasion? You must mean some other Michael Leeden) is particularly funny for its mix of mendacity and flopsweat.”

Reasons to be Fearful (Part 3)

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The juice of the carrot, the smile of the parrot
A little drop of claret – anything that rocks
Elvis and Scotty, days when I ain’t spotty,
Sitting on the potty – curing small pox
– Ian Drury and the Blockheads – “Reasons to be Cheerful (Part 3)”

Another NPR inspired rantlet… I was listening to W/E Edition yesterday morning and the host, Scott Simon, delivered a commentary inspired by the recent plane crash in New York. His points, if I understand correctly, are that one cannot be fearful all the time and that in spite of fear, life goes on. I’d like to make a couple points of my own in response to one assertion and one unstated assumption.

The assertion I’d like to counter is that objective assesment of risk can’t or shouldn’t inform our actions.

A lot of people try to cite cite statististical arguments to aquit us of fear reminding us that the statistical chances of our lives being lost in a terrorist attack is (sic) small and yet the statistical chance that any terrorist act in a familiar landscape will infiltrate our fears is overwhelming. But statistics can seem an unreal basis in which to live your life. Would anyone get married if they thought too much about the fact that more than 50% of all marriages in the United States end in divorce? Would Derek Jeter ever stride up to home plate if he focussed on the statistical fact that even he stood only a third of a chance of sucess?

To dispense with Mr. Simon’s Jeter question first – I’m sure he would. A .333 batting average in the Majors is, I believe, respectable (I don’t know what Derek Jeter’s batting stats are like – I used ‘a third of a chance’ as my benchmark) and what is the down side? He walks back to the dugout. Does he step to the plate expecting to strike out? I’m sure he doesn’t, but the reason he doesn’t has a lot more to do with sports psychology than it does statistics. A hit one in three times will more than likely continue to earn Mr. Jeter buckets of cash, while a hit less frequently will not change Jeter’s desire to try, but will degrade his chances of being allowed to do so (can you send someone like Derek Jeter back to the minors?). The marriage question is also ineffective as an indictment of statistics – at least as far as I’m concerned. The success rate of marriages in the US can’t be news to anyone and yet folks continue to get married. Is it because they don’t pay sufficient attention to their chances? I doubt it – there are a huge number of reasons to get married – emotional and financial – that overwhelm the risk consideration. The money quote is, “But statistics can seem an unreal basis in which to live your life.” There is some truth to this – people are bad at estimating odds and payoffs, so statistical risk evaluation often tells us things that are counter-intuitive (see this link for Daniel Gilbert on “How to do the right thing every time”). Does this mean that we should reject statistics and objective risk analysis? I’d suggest that that way Truthiness lies – “my gut tells me different” is not a good reason for rejecting information.

The second unstated assumption that I’d like to challenge is that this state of affairs dropped out of the sky – there are no groups that benefit from the current Panic of the Month Club. Let’s look at Mr. Simon’s list:

…cancers, treacherous car suspensions, transfats, lasers blinding airplanes, AIDS blighting continents, asbestos, hypertension, drug addiction, drunk driving, bone spurs, swine flu, christmas tree eletrocutions, cholesterol, high speed car chases, category 5 hurricanes, mad cows, choking on chicken bones…

Missing of course is E. coli on spinach >grin<. The kindest word I can think of to describe the list is heterogenous. I mean, bone spurs vs. AIDS? Lasers blinding airplanes vs. Cat. 5 hurricanes? What thread ties most of this together? Wall-to-wall media attention (I admit to missing some of them - the great bone spur crisis of ought two sailed right by me). Crises and panic get attention = viewers = revenue. Rather than try to elucidate this connection and think about what's really worth worrying about and working on (strong Public Health system, anyone?), we're encouraged to accept the whole list as the way of the world, suck it up and get past it to, I guess, resignation. Sorry, I won't play. Scott - A copy of Beyond Fear, and occasional reading of Bruce Schneier’s Cryptogram (in the blogroll) might give you a better basis on which to build the next commentary.

treacherous car suspensions, transfats,
lasers blinding airplanes, AIDS blighting continents,
asbestos, hypertension, drug addiction
– Scott Simon “Reasons to be Fearful (Part 3)” aka “A Familiar Chill In New York”

A bit of grin and bear it, a bit of come and share it
You’re welcome, we can spare it – yellow socks
Too short to be haughty, too nutty to be naughty
Going on 40 – no electric shocks
– Ian Drury and the Blockheads – ibid.

note – I transcribed the quotes from Mr. Simon’s commentaries and am responsible for any errors. In the E.coli paragraph I’m deliberately ignoring another powerful group whose hold on government is tied to keeping the populace afraid (any guesses?).

Word of the month.

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Insouciance.

This is the best commentary on/reaction to the London arrests I’ve read (so far – top it, somebody).

Maybe it’s just, I cast my eyes back on the last century …

FDR: Oh, I’m sorry, was wiping out our entire Pacific fleet supposed to intimidate us? We have nothing to fear but fear itself, and right now we’re coming to kick your ass with brand new destroyers riveted by waitresses. How’s that going to feel?

CHURCHILL: Yeah, you keep bombing us. We’ll be in the pub, flipping you off. I’m slapping Rolls-Royce engines into untested flying coffins to knock you out of the skies, and then I’m sending angry Welshmen to burn your country from the Rhine to the Polish border.

US. NOW: BE AFRAID!! Oh God, the Brown Bad people could strike any moment! They could strike … NOW!! AHHHH. Okay, how about .. NOW!! AAGAGAHAHAHHAG! Quick, do whatever we tell you, and believe whatever we tell you, or YOU WILL BE KILLED BY BROWN PEOPLE!! PUT DOWN THAT SIPPY CUP!!

… and I’m just a little tired of being on the wrong side of that historical arc.

Perfect.

To err is human.

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To completely fubar something requires mid to upper management types and PowerPoint. I’ve sat through more than my share of mind-numbing bullet-point recitations – I tend to agree with Edward Tufte that PowerPoint has been, taken as a whole, a net loss to the sum of human knowledge. Crooked Timber’s John Holbo (he of the pony) has a great post on PowerPoint’s use and misuse in the Pentagon. It’s really quite chilling – slides as a substitute for orders. More info here.

stalin's ppt

The Maronites

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See bullet #1 under my ‘wish for a pony’ post below – the NYT reports:

In an event that would have been unthinkable a few months ago, in this country where politics is locked into religious lines, the Maronite Catholic patriarch — the spiritual leader of the most pro-Western populace — convened a meeting this week of religious leaders of other communities, Shiite and Sunni Muslims and several varieties of Christians, resulting in a statement of solidarity and photographs in Wednesday’s newspapers. Their joint statement, condemning the Israeli “aggression,” hailed “the resistance, mainly led by Hezbollah, which represents one of the sections of society.”

Looks like that plan to turn the Lebanese population against Hezbollah through the indiscriminate use of air power is working not so well. Is Preznit Pendejo’s stupidity contagious?

While you’re at it, wish for a pony.

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Another radio-inspired post… I listened to Talk of the Nation this afternoon – the topic: A Peacekeeping Force in Lebanon: Can It Work? I’ve been scratching my head about this idea since I first heard it – after listening to Col. Gary Anderson (U.S.M.C. Ret.), I don’t feel so alone. Some key turns of speech employed by Col. Anderson in response to some of the obvious considerations: “thats the $64,00 question”, “not sanguine about that”, etc. I got the impression he was doing his best to inform folks, though not in so many words, that this whole concept had a snowball’s chance in hell. Here’s a short list of what I see as obstacles to deployment of ‘aggressive peacekeepers’ (we’ve seen how well standard issue peacekeepers do in the area):

  • Hezbollah. If they are not on board with the peacekeeping mission, it will be a nightmare. Hezbollah have already surprised the IDF with their fighting ability – I’m not sure why anyone thinks a different force (with a longer logistic ‘tail’) will be orders of magnitude more effective. Why would Hezbollah want to be disarmed now? They are winning – at least on the public relations and recruiting front (one blogger suggested that it would not be long before there was a Maronite Christian wing of Hezbollah, given Israel’s strategy of holding all of Lebanon hostage).
  • Who? NATO? *crickets chirping* One of the Arab states? Israel will be comfortable with that I’m sure. A possibility that seems to be getting some play is Turkey (a NATO member, I know) , but I wonder if they may want to keep their troops close at hand for ‘pacification’ of Iraqi Kurdistan when the next phase of the Iraqi civil war gets under way.
  • A corollary to the ‘who?’ question – assuming we can find a couple battalions with the requisite capabilities and without local baggage (not likely, but play along for a minute) – how willing will the supplying country be to take casualties? For how long?
  • The logistic ‘tail’ – how would one supply these peacekeepers? Supply routes are vulnerable in a guerrilla war situation and Hezbollah are masters of what’s now known as IEDs.

It sure doesn’t seem like a bet I’d be willing to make…

The title of the post comes from here. The short form: “It’s like when you can’t decide whether to daydream about being a famous Hollywood star or having amazing magical powers. Why not — be a famous Hollywood star with amazing magical powers! Along these lines, John has developed an infallible way to improve any public policy wishes. You just wish for the thing, plus, wish that everyone would have their own pony!”

update 7/27 AM: The ‘who’ is getting a little clearer – some European countries (France, Italy) are indicating a willingness to participate in peacekeeping. The ‘how/what’ remains unclear – will this force attempt to disarm Hezbollah? enforce an already agreed-upon cease-fire? will they shoot in self-defense only or will this be the aggressive force that has been suggested? For really high-quality Middle East blogging, read Juan Cole’s Informed Comment.

Pee-pee pants conservatives

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Driving home from work yesterday listening to the radio, I heard tape of ace toady Pat Roberts (R-Lickspittle), Chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, emitting his infamous quote, “I would only point out that you really don’t have any civil liberties if you’re dead.” As I came to instant boil, I thought of some of the folks that would disagree with Mr. Roberts’ outlook if they were here – probably not respectfully – Patrick Henry comes to mind. Then I looked at the license plate on the car ahead of me. I’ve always thought that our state motto was a little over the top; I no longer feel that way. John Stark’s full toast is: “Live free or die: Death is not the worst of evils.” It would be nice if some of the bozos currently selling our institutions down the river in order to provide themselves ass-cover should something bad happen again could keep this in mind, but given the evidence they have provided over the past five years – ain’t going to happen.

If you’re doing nothing wrong, you have nothing to hide?

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I just got around to reading Bruce Schneier’s latest Crypto-Gram – it contains an excellent essay on the value of privacy.

Privacy protects us from abuses by those in power, even if we’re doing nothing wrong at the time of surveillance.

and

Too many wrongly characterize the debate as “security versus privacy.” The real choice is liberty versus control. Tyranny, whether it arises under threat of foreign physical attack or under constant domestic authoritative scrutiny, is still tyranny. Liberty requires security without intrusion, security plus privacy. Widespread police surveillance is the very definition of a police state. And that’s why we should champion privacy even when we have nothing to hide.

Later, he quotes Solzhenitsyn (I’m not wild about Solzhenitsyn’s Mother Russia reactionary crabbiness, but if anyone can talk about the surveillance/police state, he’s the one):

“As every man goes through life he fills in a number of forms for the record, each containing a number of questions… There are thus hundreds of little threads radiating from every man, millions of threads in all. If these threads were suddenly to become visible, the whole sky would look like a spider’s web, and if they materialized as rubber bands, buses; trams and even people would all lose the ability to move, and the wind would be unable to carry torn-up newspapers or autumn leaves along the streets of the city. They are not visible, they are not material, but every man is constantly aware of their existence…. Each man, permanently aware of his own invisible threads, naturally develops a respect for the people who manipulate the threads.”

Reinvention

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One of my favorite bloggers – Digby – hits a home run w/ this analysis of why privacy is so important; why it’s a key member of the set of innovations that made this country what it is.

Privacy For The Common Good

But there is another aspect of this which is important, as well. Clinton’s privacy Bill of Rights includes a lot of consumer protections, which is something that I think is a truly sellable, populist idea. The intrusion into our private lives by government is a threat to our individual liberty. The intrusion (and collusion) by its ally, corporate America, is truly a threat to the fundamental definition of what it means to be an American. The ability to amass all this data and create profiles of us and put us into categories and label us as being one thing or another according to complex formulas, means that the great innovation of America — the ability to reinvent ourselves and take risks — will no longer be optional. The great nation of immigrants and hucksters and innovators will become a stratified society based on criteria that has nothing to do with our potential and everything to do with our past.

This is important stuff – we seem to edge closer to a technological panopticon every day – if we let them build it, they’ll use it.